Monday, May 15, 2006

On Reservations

Surjit Bhalla, the economist, has reached rather startling conclusions in a Business Standard report based on the 1999 NSS data.

The Conclusion is that the 'Upper Castes in the country do not have a dramatically higher chance of getting top jobs in comparison with SC/ST's and OBC's, in case all of them have the same level of education'.

Before furnishing the data, a few clarifications-

- This survey considers a person who has passed at least high school
(Xth Std) as a part of the 'Educated'
Labour Force.

- A 'good' Job is defined as a 'professional,
technical or a managerial'

job held by those who've passed at least high school.

Here's the data -

Probability of getting a good job
Pre-reservation || Post-reservation

SC/ST's 31.7% 63.9%

OBC's 28.6% 41.3%

Muslims 35.9% 28.0%

Caste Hindus 39.2% 28.0%

Let me elucidate.
The data suggest that an SC/ST high-school passout (this obviously includes those who've done UG/PG) has a 31.7% chance of landing a 'good' job.
For a Caste Hindu, the corresponding figure is 39.2%.
Hence, today the probability of landing a 'good' job for an SC/ST is barely 25% lower than that
of a caste Hindu. The difference is negligible especially if you factor in the fact that most of the SC/ST population is concentrated in the villages, where job opportunities are scarce. No discrimination whatsoever :)

Now, if Kamalnath goes ahead and implements the 22.5% reservation for SC/ST's in the private sector, the discrimination becomes very evident.
The Chances of getting a 'good' job for SC/ST's shall go up to 63%.
For OBC's the figure shall rise upto 41%.
These increases will be at the expense of the Upper Castes and Muslims, who'll bear the brunt of the government-mandated discrimination.
The figure for SC/ST's (63%) will now be almost 125% more than that of Caste Hindus (28%).

This is what the dumbass KamalNath intends to do. With the Intent of correcting a marginal difference of 25% (which may not be because of discrimination, mind you), he has come up with a grandiose reverse-discrimination scheme, that shall prove to be a nail in the coffin of the Upper Castes.


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