Tuesday, May 11, 2004
A HUNG PARLIAMENT?
Elections have concluded ,speculations galore and if exit polls are anything to go by,no pre-poll alliance will get anywhere near a majority. The resounding defeat of TDP in the
Andhra assembly elections have added credence to the exit polls and the NDA spin-doctors are increasingly finding it difficult to gainsay the inevitability of a hung parliament.
A fractured mandate was inconceivable 4 months ago when the house was dissolved ,but it was always on the cards after the NDA bungled its gameplan in TN and to a lesser extent,in Maharashtra.Snapping up ties with the DMK was the worst bloomer that they could have possibly committed , and it's a shame that they did not foresee the disastrous consequences of their action.
There's another school of thought that the DMK was keen to leave the NDA anyway to tie up with the Congress with an eye on the 2006 assembly election, and the NDA was in fact presented with a fait accompli i.e it was compelled to forge an alliance with Jayalalitha!Anyway,the bottomline is that the TN debacle might cost the BJP the majority that it so desperately needs.
Another miscalculation was in Maharashtra where a few months ago,the BJP and the NCP came within a whisker of forming an alliance,but their efforts were thwarted by Bal Thackerey who put his foot down owing to his personal antagonism with the NCP's Sharad Pawar.If that alliance had materialized,the Congress would have been wiped off in the state.
So much for my post-mortem!Now,all eyes are on our president!Will he invite Vajpayee as the leader of the largest pre-poll alliance,or will he resort to the expedient of calling upon any leader who can produce letters of support from 272 newly elected MP's?
Your guess is as good as mine!
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Elections have concluded ,speculations galore and if exit polls are anything to go by,no pre-poll alliance will get anywhere near a majority. The resounding defeat of TDP in the
Andhra assembly elections have added credence to the exit polls and the NDA spin-doctors are increasingly finding it difficult to gainsay the inevitability of a hung parliament.
A fractured mandate was inconceivable 4 months ago when the house was dissolved ,but it was always on the cards after the NDA bungled its gameplan in TN and to a lesser extent,in Maharashtra.Snapping up ties with the DMK was the worst bloomer that they could have possibly committed , and it's a shame that they did not foresee the disastrous consequences of their action.
There's another school of thought that the DMK was keen to leave the NDA anyway to tie up with the Congress with an eye on the 2006 assembly election, and the NDA was in fact presented with a fait accompli i.e it was compelled to forge an alliance with Jayalalitha!Anyway,the bottomline is that the TN debacle might cost the BJP the majority that it so desperately needs.
Another miscalculation was in Maharashtra where a few months ago,the BJP and the NCP came within a whisker of forming an alliance,but their efforts were thwarted by Bal Thackerey who put his foot down owing to his personal antagonism with the NCP's Sharad Pawar.If that alliance had materialized,the Congress would have been wiped off in the state.
So much for my post-mortem!Now,all eyes are on our president!Will he invite Vajpayee as the leader of the largest pre-poll alliance,or will he resort to the expedient of calling upon any leader who can produce letters of support from 272 newly elected MP's?
Your guess is as good as mine!
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